Building a win-back that actually works

Most win-back flows fail for the same reason: they fire too late and lead with a discount. This is the structure behind the flow that brought back $1.2M in lapsed-customer revenue across our customer base — originally a 45-minute webinar, condensed here.

Get the trigger right

"90 days since last order" is the default, and it's wrong for most stores. The right trigger is relative to your reorder cycle: median days-between-orders × 1.5. A coffee brand should fire at day 45; a furniture brand maybe never — they need a different program entirely.

Message 1: the nudge (day 0)

No offer. A short, human note — "still loving the ones you bought?" — plus what's new since they last visited. Around 30% of recoveries happen here, at full margin.

Message 2: the proof (day 7)

Best sellers, reviews, anything that re-establishes why they bought the first time. Still no discount. This message exists so the offer in message 3 doesn't train customers to wait.

Message 3: the offer (day 14)

One offer, one expiry, said plainly: "15% off, ends Sunday, then we'll stop emailing you about it." The deadline and the promise to stop are what make it convert.

The exit matters

If all three messages go unopened, suppress the contact from campaigns. Keeping cold addresses on your list costs deliverability on every future send — letting go is part of the flow.

Results to expect

Benchmarks across stores running this structure: 12–18% of lapsed customers recovered, with roughly half converting before the discount step.